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The global economy operates on a much more delicate balance than commonly believed. At the heart of this balance lies the uninterrupted flow of energy supply and trade. It is precisely at this point that maritime transit points, which form the invisible backbone of world trade, play a critical role.

Today, approximately 85% of world trade, in terms of volume, and 55% in terms of value, takes place by sea. Therefore, any disruption in straits, canals, and narrow waterways can have consequences that affect not only logistics but the entire global economy.

When considering the critical transit points of global trade, it is evident that world trade flows through several strategic sea routes. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit point that directs approximately 20% of global oil trade. The Strait of Malacca stands out as Asia's main energy and trade route; while the Suez Canal carries approximately 15% of global trade. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a strategic point ensuring the security of Red Sea transit. Finally, the Panama Canal plays a significant role in global trade by providing a connection between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

These points are central not only to trade but also to the geopolitical power struggle.

The process that began with the US and Israeli military moves against Iran in 2026 created significant pressure, particularly on the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping traffic almost came to a standstill, oil and natural gas prices experienced sharp fluctuations, and a shock effect was felt in global markets.

This development once again demonstrated that energy security is directly related not only to production but also to the security of transportation routes. Increased risks in recent years are leading companies and countries to seek alternative routes.

The Cape of Good Hope route has regained importance, while the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has also come to the forefront. This route can save up to 10 days on the Europe-Asia route. However, it remains in limited use due to high costs, challenging ice conditions, and insurance risks. Nevertheless, in the long term, it has the potential to become one of the important alternatives for global trade.

On the other hand, climate change presents both new opportunities and new risks. Climate change is not only an environmental problem, but also a factor reshaping trade routes. For example, drought in the Panama Canal is leading to transit restrictions, while the melting of Arctic ice is making new sea routes possible.

All these developments clearly show that logistics planning must now include climate risks.

It is a fact that the global energy system is still largely based on oil (34%) and natural gas (25%). However, these resources are not only essential for energy production; they also form the basic input for sectors such as plastics, textiles, automotive, construction, and chemicals. Therefore, a disruption in energy supply affects the entire production system in a chain reaction.

At this point, energy security also means strategic independence. Today, energy security for countries is not limited to oil and gas supply; renewable energy, critical minerals, recycling, and the circular economy have also become important components of this scope.

Investments in solar and wind energy, critical minerals such as lithium and cobalt, and urban mining are among the most important topics for the coming period.

Although the rules of the game are changing, the fate of global trade in the 21st century is still determined at sea. However, the issue is no longer simply about controlling these transit points. The real difference will be made by the countries and companies that can reduce their dependence on these passages.

Energy, logistics, and trade are now converging into a single equation. In this equation, the winners will be the actors who can develop alternatives, anticipate risks, and act flexibly.

In short, in the future of trade, those who are powerful will not be those who control the straits, but those who are prepared for crises.