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As Türkiye entered 2026, one of the strongest narratives for the economy was centered on exports. The first-quarter data shared by Ömer Bolat pointed to a noticeable sense of optimism within the business community. According to the Foreign Trade Expectations Survey published by the Ticaret Bakanlığı, the Export Expectations Index rose to 109, indicating that firms were approaching the coming period with confidence.

This outlook was supported by a solid backdrop. The export record achieved in 2025 marked an important milestone in terms of Türkiye’s production capacity and competitiveness in global markets. Combined with the drive to expand into new markets—particularly in the United States, Europe, and neighboring regions—the $282 billion export target for 2026 was widely seen as a realistic roadmap. In short, the prevailing sentiment at the start of the year was that Türkiye could sustain growth despite challenging global conditions.

However, by the second quarter, the same dataset began to tell a different story. The Export Expectations Index fell below the critical threshold of 100, declining to 99. While this technically signals a shift into pessimistic territory, what stands out more is the speed of this change. Such a sharp reversal in expectations within just three months suggests a more fragile underlying dynamic in foreign trade.

Understanding this shift requires distinguishing between expectations and actual outcomes. The optimism at the beginning of the year was largely based on potential—new orders, new markets, and a strong growth trajectory. Yet second-quarter data imply that these expectations have not fully materialized. The decline in order expectations indicates that firms are becoming more cautious not only about the present but also about the near future.

Global economic conditions play a key role here. Türkiye’s export performance is closely tied to external demand, which appears to have remained weaker than anticipated. Sluggish growth in Europe, tight global financial conditions, and rising protectionism are among the main factors complicating the outlook for exporters. In this sense, the issue extends beyond domestic dynamics.

Developments on the import side also complete the picture. Although the Import Expectations Index remains above 100, the increase in import unit price expectations is noteworthy. This suggests that cost pressures may intensify in the coming period, potentially creating a dual challenge for firms—slower sales growth alongside rising costs, which could compress profit margins.

Overall, this does not point to a negative scenario on its own, but rather to a more fragile balance. The contrast between strong initial expectations and the more cautious stance in the second quarter highlights how quickly economic sentiment can shift, suggesting that confidence has yet to fully stabilize.

The “export-led growth” narrative of early 2026 has not disappeared, but it has clearly evolved. The current environment is more cautious, more data-driven, and more sensitive to external developments. If orders recover and external demand strengthens, this slowdown may prove temporary. Otherwise, second-quarter data may mark the beginning of a more measured phase for the rest of the year.

In economics, what matters is often not the numbers themselves, but the expectations behind them. Current data suggest a transition from strong optimism to a more balanced and cautious outlook.